Ever look out your window at a drenching rainstorm after you just heard “chance of precipitation near zero?” Political polling is, if anything, even less exact than meteorology. I think (and HOPE) people are going to be very surprised to wake up on November 6 and see an enormous victory for Harris and Walz.

Why am I so optimistic? Here are 10 of the many reasons:

  1. Every time reproductive rights has been on the ballot since Rowe v. Wade, it not only generates big turnout, it has won and has brought out Democratic voters—even in places like Kansas. 10 states are voting on reproductive rights this year, including normally Red-voting Florida, South Dakota, Nebraska, and Missouri and swing state Arizona. Flipping those states Blue would make a Trump victory very difficult. A related factor: Many people correctly see Trump as an existential threat to our democracy, and those people are going to vote to protect us.
  2. Usual Red states that have elected Democrats in recent statewide elections (e.g., Governor, US Senator, Wisconsin Supreme Court Judge) include North Carolina, Georgia, Montana, and Kentucky. Not to mention several swing states like Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Virginia.
  3. Even before Kamala Harris took over the top of the ticket, new voters were registering in huge numbers. Since Biden ended his candidacy, the surge has been far greater. And Harris’s ability to sew up the nomination and get endorsements not only from potential competitors but pretty much the entire Democratic Party establishment as well as a vast array of grassroots groups in 48 hours is nothing short of miraculous.
  4. The excitement and enthusiasm also manifests in private donations on a scale never seen before, massive rallies long after the July “honeymoon”, and influential celebrity endorsements like Taylor Swift and Bruce Springsteen—not to mention a gazillion interest-group caucuses fundraising and organizing under titles like Elders for Kamala (ranging from Bill McKibben to Jane Fonda), Labor for Harris, Disabled Voters for Harris, and so many others
  5. Harris has gained the support of vast constituencies who were insulted and belittled by Trump and Vance: women, labor, LGBT, people of color, military veterans, youth, environment and climate change activists, even sane Republicans from George Will to Liz Cheney and her former Vice President father.
  6. While activists to the left of Harris (including me) recognize that she is not our ideal candidate—she has a lot of growing to do on Middle East policy, immigration justice, and climate/energy, to name three among many—we also recognize that ranked-choice voting doesn’t exist, that on every issue she is orders of magnitude better than her opponent, and that we can pressure her from the left. Not only can we not meaningfully pressure Trump to change his incredibly bad policies (though we can file lawsuits that will undo at least a little of the harm), we will face serious repression. It’s hard to fight for justice from prison or exile.
  7. Project 2025, the blueprint for a fascist takeover of the US government, is scaring a lot of people into voting to protect democracy. And despite his denials, Trump’s fingerprints are all over Project 2025. What I don’t understand is why they actually published it before the election. I’m happy for their huge strategic mistake, but puzzled. Did they actually think this would help get Trump elected? Meanwhile, the electorate overwhelmingly favors much more liberal policies on issue after issue. Whether it’s reproductive rights, sensible gun laws, or even world trade—and that trade link is from the conservative Cato Institute—Trump, Vance, and the MAGA Republicans are wildly out of step with the public.
  8. Not only have Trump and Vance made no attempt to court independent voters or even moderate Republicans, they seem to be working hard to alienate them. They are only courting the MAGA base, and that won’t be enough to get them into office.
  9. Trump’s noticeable cognitive decline and both his and Vance’s consistent use of fantasy instead of fact are scaring people.
  10. As a country, we are tired of Trump’s constant lying, bullying, name-calling, criminal self-dealing, criminal fraud, actions that a courtroom considered the equivalent of rape, coup attempts, horrendous policies, coddling of dictators while bashing allies, and all the rest of Trump’s chaos. It is clear that he didn’t have the skills or the temperament to run the country during his term, and he’s even less suited to this very tough job now.

Harris will undoubtedly win the popular vote, probably by several million. But the Electoral College vote is the one that really counts, and that could be a lot closer. Thus, if you want to see a sane, compassionate president rather than a lying, bullying, incompetent 34-count convicted felon and failed businessman with numerous bankruptcies in the White House, please vote—and please volunteer and/or donate. Every vote will make a difference in getting those vote totals not just past victory, but with such a margin that no one will take seriously Trump’s inevitable claims of fraud. DO NOT leave this for someone else! Participate in the most important election in your lifetime, and maybe in the nation’s history.

Facebooktwitterpinterestlinkedinmail

…They claim the Dems are undemocratic because Kamala didn’t become the presidential nominee through primaries? What hypocrites!

Here’s what to tell MAGA folks when they start kvetching that Biden got 14 million votes in the primaries while Kamala got none:

  1. 81 MILLION people (almost 6 times as many as Biden’s primary votes) voted for Kamala Harris when she ran for Vice President in 2020 (and that same 14 million who voted for Biden this year also voted for her again in the Democratic primaries)—and the entire electorate will get to vote on this very shortly.
  2. She has Biden’s (and both Obamas’ and both Clintons’) strong endorsement as well as pretty much every major non-MAGA politician from AOC and Bernie on the left to Liz Cheney, her father the former VP, and conservative columnist George Will along with a bunch of former Trump senior staffers on the right—precisely BECAUSE Trump presents an existential threat to democracy.
  3. She got endorsements from practically every delegate pledged to Biden once he withdrew.
  4. The whole idea of HAVING a VP is to have a mechanism in place if the president can’t continue. Listing them in reverse chronological order, LBJ, Harry Truman, Calvin Coolidge, Teddy Roosevelt,  Chester Arthur, Andrew Johnson, Millard Fillmore, and John Tyler all became president without ANYONE voting them into that office. They were sitting VPs when the president died. If people feel that Kamala’s nomination was unfairly undemocratic, they have the option not to vote for her on November 5.
  5. MAGA people are opening quite the can of worms by bringing up undemocratic attitudes. Because THEIR guy is super-vulnerable on this. Not only has Trump openly stated he wants to be a dictator but his speeches are jam-packed with attacks on minority groups, calls for retribution against his enemies, endorsements of other dictators including Orban, Xi, Putin, and Kim among others, not to mention endorsing the savage but fictional cannibal Hannibal Lecter. Project 2025, which Trump falsely claims to know nothing about, is a roadmap for overthrowing democracy—created with help from more than 140 past and  present Trump employees and naming Trump numerous times. And that is just one of his tens of thousands of documented lies (30,573 just during his time as president, 162 in a single recent so-called press conference that did not take actual on-the-fly questions and did not subject him to being in the same room with his hand-picked panel). Agenda 47, which Trump does endorse and which the GOP has adopted as this year’s platform, sounds an awful lot like a simplified, less detailed Project 2025.
  6. And Trump not only has an extremely undemocratic record in his four years as president, a lot of the guardrails that kept him at least somewhat in check have been taken away—starting with the loony Supreme Court decision that found a president can not be held accountable for any action that was taken in his role as president.
  7. Finally, do we even need to mention that sore loser Trump is the ONLY US president who refused to hand over power peacefully at the end of his term, who incited a riot in a vain (and in-vain) attempt to incite a coup, who filed roughly 60 lawsuits to overturn the will of the people, many of which were tossed out by judges he had appointed? And, of course, he’s the only US president to be charged with 94 felonies and to be found guilty of 34 of them in the one trial that has taken place so far, not to mention held liable for $454 MM in the aftermath of just one of many suits against him for slanders and credible allegations of abusing women.
Facebooktwitterpinterestlinkedinmail

One of my regular readers messaged me Sunday night to ask if I planned to blog about Biden’s withdrawal. I said yes, but only once I’d figured out which angle to focus on. There are quite a few.

Monday morning, at 5:25 a.m., I had the lightning-bolt insight that I didn’t have to pick just one angle. This is a complex issue with many parts, and I can explore as many of those parts as I want to! So after an unsuccessful attempt to get a bit more sleep, I first sat down at the keyboard at 5:45 a.m., on five hours of sleep, and finally finished the first draft at 9:05 p.m. Then my wife suggested I break it into two pieces. In the clear light of morning, I followed her advice 😉.

Here are the first four:

 

  1. It’s Not About His Age!

There’s nothing magic about passing 80 that makes you suddenly lose all your ability. Pablo Casals was still making beautiful music into his 90s. Pete Seeger was still writing great songs, though he couldn’t sing them very well anymore. Grandma Moses (who didn’t even start painting until her late 70s) and Picasso were still making art. My activist friend, Arky Markham, used her public 100th birthday party to raise funds for her charity, while three years later her friend and mine, Frances Crowe, used HER public 100th birthday party to organize a demonstration for social justice. Her vision was “100 people with 100 signs for 100 causes;” she got 300. Strom Thurmond still displayed his reactionary politics as a US Senator into his 90s and served beyond his hundredth birthday. Though his Wikipedia bio notes that he wasn’t very competent for his last decade, that still means he was an effective senator long past the age Biden would have been at the end of his second term.

 

  1. But Biden’s Decline is Real—And So Is Trump’s

And yet, aging is real. We all age differently. Biden has been increasingly erratic. I believe George Clooney’s statement that the Biden he saw at a June fundraiser was not the strong, competent leader of the State of the Union Address or his more recent speech to NATO but “was the same man we all witnessed at the debate.” In an op-ed published in The New York Times on July 17, Clooney writes the Biden he was with last month “was not the Joe ‘big F-ing deal’ Biden of 2010” or “even the Joe Biden of 2020.”

I was also deeply concerned that Biden himself told a meeting of governors that he doesn’t want to schedule events past 8 p.m. because he needs to get more sleep. Unfortunately for Biden, being president doesn’t get you a lot of sleep. You’re going to be woken up frequently to deal with crises, and your schedule will demand late-night meetings. At least the president doesn’t have to deal with senior night-driving issues and drive there, as some of us do.

Even though his withdrawal was reluctant and belated, Biden has been deservedly lauded for putting his country ahead of his own ambition—something his recent opponent has proven over and over again that he is incapable of doing. Although you wouldn’t know it from the media coverage since the debate, Trump’s mental acuity (never his strongest suit) has also plunged. His speeches have been incoherent for months. As far back as April, Newsweek highlighted a prominent psychologist’s analysis on the David Pakman show that Trump was “faltering.” But for some reason, this story didn’t make many waves in the rest of the media, or in the public consciousness. Trump’s use of violent rhetoric, including plagiarizing Hitler not just once but on numerous occasions, got slightly more attention, but the media didn’t focus on it the way they did on Biden’s debate failure. I’ll go into more detail in Angle #5, in Part II.

 

  1. Deceiving the Populace Did Nobody Any Favors

The campaign should have been open and honest that Biden was declining. And Biden himself should have declared truthfully that even with just one term, he had one of the greatest records of accomplishment of any president in history—getting more done in one term than many presidents accomplish in two, despite never having control over both houses of Congress—and  it was time for him to relax, step back, and let a younger person get a turn to be the knight in shining armor. The ~14 million who voted for Biden in the primary should have been made aware that these flaws were showing up often enough to be worrisome—and they should have been presented with other choices. Challengers should have been given room to ramp up ahead of the primaries so that those 14 million voters would have been involved in choosing his successor.

And Biden’s record really is remarkable. Beyond the obvious big deals like bringing the economy back from the brink, hastening the end of the pandemic through science-based policy, passing infrastructure and recovery acts with a lot of good green stuff, walking his talk on supporting people of color and LGBTQ folks, and being the most labor-friendly president ever, here are 30 accomplishments you may not have heard about that harnessed the administrative power of the federal government to make huge progress on issues ranging from keeping our records private to shifting farming and energy to far greener paths to building stronger relations between countries that are historic enemies (such as Japan and South Korea).

 

  1. Biden Gained Office While Hinting that He Would Only Serve One Term

Recognizing that his age was an issue even in 2020, Biden signaled that he wouldn’t be likely to run again in 2024. While he didn’t come out and promise not to run again, private messaging was leaked to the public back then that strongly implied he would not seek a second term.

Later this week, I’ll post Part II, with more angles to examine, including a big surprise about the Democratic Party. As soon as it goes live, I’ll post a link here. If you post a comment, I’ll tag you when it’s ready.

 

Lifelong activist, author, international speaker, and TEDx Talker Shel Horowitz helps businesses succeed by building in environmental healing and social justice. His award-winning 10th book is Guerrilla Marketing to Heal the World. Find him at https://goingbeyondsustainability.com

 

Facebooktwitterpinterestlinkedinmail